2011 NFL Predictions

My apologies, these are three days late ....

I think the lockout will have a major effect on the quality of play this year. In my opinion, despite the excitement of seeing the Packers win the Super Bowl, I thought the play on the field in 2010 was poor (tackling, QB play), the officiating was bad, and the overall product was sometimes unwatchable. Expect to see more of that this year, especially early in the season. With that being said, I'm still excited for the season to start. Take these predictions with a grain of salt (don't know what that means), but I've only seen about 20 minutes of pre-season football this season.

NFC East

1) Eagles

2) Cowboys

3) Giants

4) Redskins

Expecting another big year from Vick (and no, not just because I own him in the Fugazzi). The Cowboys and Giants will be competitive, and the Redskins have maroon and yellow uniforms.

NFC North

1) Packers

2) Lions

3) Vikings

4) Bears

I think the lockout will have minimal effect on the teams that made few changes in the offseason, and keep in mind, the Packers have a 2nd place schedule. They may win 13 games. The Lions are on their way up, and Vikings won't be as bad as last year, and the Bears won't be as good as last year. Still will be a good division.

NFC South

1) Falcons

2) Saints

3) Bucs

4) Panthers

The Falcons will be solid, the Saints will be solid, I can't figure out the Bucs, and the Panthers will be terrible.

NFC West

1) Rams

2) Cardinals

3) 49ers

4) Seahawks

This division will be bad again, but I'm predicting the division winner will have 9 wins, instead of last year's 7.

AFC East

1) Jets

2) Patriots

3) Dolphins

4) Bills

The Jets and Patriots will be atop this division for awhile.

AFC North

1) Ravens

2) Steelers

3) Browns

4) Bengals

I think my Browns will be competitive, but I'm not ready to have them pass up the Steelers and/or Ravens yet. The Bengals will be the worst team in the league.

AFC South

1) Texans

2) Colts

3) Titans

4) Jaguars

I have absolutely no feel for this division whatsoever.

AFC West

1) Chargers

2) Chiefs

3) Broncos

4) Raiders

Chargers ..... and everyone else.

So .... the eight division winners will be the Eagles, Packers, Falcons, Rams, Jets, Ravens, Texans and Chargers. My pick for the four wild cards will be the Lions, Saints, Patriots and Steelers. You heard it here first. Lions, and no Colts.

NFC Playoff predictions

#3 seed Falcons over #6 seed Saints

#4 seed Rams over #5 seed Lions

#1 seed Packers over #4 seed Rams

#3 seed Falcons over #2 seed Eagles

#1 seed Packers over #3 seed Falcons for NFC Championship

AFC Playoff predictions

#6 seed Steelers over #3 seed Texans

#5 seed Patriots over #4 seed Chargers

#1 seed Ravens over #6 seed Steelers

#2 seed Jets over #5 seed Patriots

#2 seed Jets over #1 seed Ravens for AFC Championship

My Super Bowl Prediction

Packers over Jets, 27-17

Draft Day

Tomorrow is my favorite day of the year, or at least one of them. At noon, I will be hosting the 19th Fugazzi Fantasy Football League draft, and then tomorrow night, we will get together for the 4th annual Son of Fugazzi Fantasy Football League draft at Buffalo Wild Wings in West Allis.

Why, after 18 years, do I still get excited for essentially a kid's game ? It really has nothing to do with football, or the money that's on the line. It's the comradery. It's the idea of sharing a common interest with your best friends. 14 people, all with the same goal, and all the fun that comes with it.

When I started this in 1993, and for the next 15-16 years, I would prepare like crazy for draft day. I'd buy all the books. I'd take a ton of notes. I'd even dream about the goddamn thing. That stopped in 2009. And guess what happened? I won it all, for the first time ever. I would stress about drafting the perfect team, create charts, second guess myself, and nothing ever came of it. But in 2009, I did none of that, and won a championship. Ever since then, I've done nothing to prepare for the draft, but recall all the great draft day memories, and all the fun we've had following our teams the past 18 years.

I'm 35 now, and I've been following the league a long time. I know the players. I have a short list of sleepers, but the days of extensive research are over. Now, it's time for me to draft on my gut feeling, and enjoy the process.

This league is about getting together with Mike Moser and his son on a Sunday afternoon. This league is about Nick Korth talking smack. This league is about The Brothers Fefer putting their heads together to win another title. This league is about Tom Hnasko reminding me that I was an idiot in 1993. This league is about Jamie and Pat. This league is for my friends, and this league will be my daughter's league.

I never get enough sleep the night before. I hope that never changes.

OK, the Hall of Fame

OK, here's the thing ...

Everyone is stunned that I don't watch MLB's Hall of Fame ceremonies. This won't take long to explain. It's pretty simple, really.

I plan to take my family there one day. I can hear the questions now. "Daddy? Who has the most home runs all time?" Barry Bonds. "Let's go see his plaque." He doesn't have one. "Why?" He took steroids. "Well, who had the most hits of all time?" Pete Rose. "Can we see his plaque?" He doesn't have one, either, because he bet on baseball while he was a player and a manager.

Look, the Hall of Fame is a museum, and whether these guys belong in the hall can be debated all day, but they need to be represented in the museum. Not putting Bonds and Rose in the Hall of Fame is somewhat like denying that they even played. The bottom line is, Bonds was a hall of famer before he started juicing. He was an idiot, he cheated the game, but he's a hall of famer. When you create his plaque, say he took steroids, and that explains how a guy who never hit more than 47 homers somehow hit 73 in 2001, but put the guy in the museum, already. Same with Rose. Engrave the words "banned for life for gambling" on his plaque, but Rose is a hall of famer.

It's not the Hall of Clean, the Hall of Good, or the Hall of Values. We should put the best players on display, and tell their stories. Cobb was a racist dick. Ruth a fat drunk. All of these characters make up the fabric of this wonderful game.

And Bert Blyleven ? In my opinion, he's a hall of famer, but goddamn, if you've missed the cut 14 times, and finally make it, have you really made it ? What if they revoted the guys that made it every year, and if they miss one year, they take them out of the hall ?

The Hall of Fame voting should happen once. You're either a hall of famer, or you're not.

So, that's why I don't watch.

Brewers Fever

I love the K-Rod trade. If adults can put their egos aside for 3 and a half months, we can make a run at a world championship. Everyone's saying, "but we don't need another closer". Enough with the labels, we traded for a great relief pitcher, regardless of what inning he's throwing in. He'll get his chance to close games, which will be great, especially if Axford goes 2 or 3 days in a row. You want quality arms coming out of that pen. This is a much better option than Kameron Loe or Latroy Hawkins. You have to love a franchise that goes out and gets a player that can have an immediate impact.

Now, on to the J.J. Hardy rumors. Do it. Do it now. It the Orioles don't extend him, again, this improves the team. They traded Hardy because they were high on Escobar, but they traded Escobar after one year, so that is the best evidence that they regret the deal. If you have a chance to get him back, even for the rest of this season, do it now.

The Brewers are the talk of baseball, just like they were in 2008. Prince Fielder hits the first Brewers homer in All Star history, takes MVP honors, we trade for K-Rod, and we get Braun back tomorrow night, with the 22 game hitting streak in tact.

The next 11 games are key. All on the road, all against decent teams. If we want to show the baseball world that we are contenders, we have to take 6 of 11 on this trip. Take 3 of 4 in Colorado, split the 4 games with Arizona, and steal 1 in San Francisco. That would be an acceptable trip, for the team that has the worst road record in baseball.

I'm excited for the second half of the season.

My love of Gracie and baseball

You can mark 2011 down officially as the year my daughter, Gracie, became a Brewers fan. She is very attentive during the game, sings during home runs, has a handful of favorites (Randy Wolf, Tony Plush, Prince Fielder), and cheered when Braun, Weeks and Fielder were introduced at the All Star Game tonight.

With the Francisco Rodriguez acquisition for the Brewers tonight, it may be realize that the Brewers are making a run at a World Series this year, but it also made me realize that Gracie will most likely have to say goodbye to one of her favorites in the same calendar year that she became a fan. I remember how heartbroken I was when Gorman Thomas was traded to Cleveland in 1983, and I am now starting to prepare to have the Prince Fielder conversation with her this winter.

In an honest moment tonight, Gracie mistook Jose Reyes for Rickie Weeks, and looked genuinely sad to see what she thought was Rickie Weeks wearing anything but a Brewers jersey. She exclaimed, "Daddy, Rickie Weeks is a Met?"

Her favorite Brewer is Randy Wolf. We will be getting his bobblehead on September 25th, and I will buy her his t-shirt on the way to our seats. I'm sure this will be a huge thrill for her. It will be hard to tell her that Randy Wolf is no longer a Brewer, if and when he ever leaves for the next town on his journey, but I guess that's baseball. It may be hard, but in a way, it will be a bonding moment for father and daughter.

Just a few things I'm thinking about tonight. I love that Gracie has embraced baseball, like her father. What a thrill ....

My "Swine Flu" DVD list

Giving full credit to Jamie Armata for coining the phrase. One day, we're having dinner, and he said, "I kinda hope I get the swine flu, cuz I got a bunch of DVD's I need to catch up on". I've been using it ever since ...

Here is my current "Swine Flu" DVD list ....

Elton John (Live from Madison Square Garden, October of 2000)

Elton John (60th Birthday show from MSG, March of 2007)

Guided By Voices (Final show, From Chicago, December of 2004)

Modern Family (season one)

Curb Your Enthusiasm (season seven)

The Dark Knight

The Deer Hunter

Godfather Trilogy

Rock n Roll Hall of Fame 25th anniversary concerts

Rock n Roll Hall of Fame box set

The Rise and Fall of ECW

Car 54 Where are You (season one)

The League (season one)

30 for 30 (first 15 documentaries)

Baseball (Ken Burns documentary)

The History of the Cleveland Browns

30 Day Song Challenge (in one night)

Day One - My Favorite Song ...

Scenes From An Italian Restaurant (Billy Joel)

Day Two- My Least Favorite Song ...

That piece of shit Nickelback song featured in Spider Man, or some shit (Nickelback)

Day Three - A Song That Makes Me Happy ...

Gracie (Ben Folds)

Day Four - A Song That Makes Me Sad ...

Lullabye (Goodnight, My Angel) (Billy Joel) ....

Day Five - A Song That Reminds Me of Someone ...

The Beauty of Who You Are (Marc Broussard)

Day Six - A Song That Reminds Me of Somewhere ...

I Love Rock n Roll (Joan Jett)

Day Seven - A Song That Reminds Me of a Certain Event ...

Cadillac Ranch (Bruce Springsteen)

Day Eight - A Song That I Know All the Words To ...

Buddy Holly (Weezer)

Day Nine - A Song That I Can Dance To ...

(none)

Day Ten - A Song That Makes Me Fall Asleep ...

(none come to mind)

Day Eleven - A Song From My Favorite Band ...

Diecast Aeroplane (Union Pulse)

Day Twelve - A Song From a Band I Hate ...

Photograph (Nickelback)

Day Thirteen - A Song That is a Guilty Pleasure ...

Mambo #5 (Lou Bega)

Day Fourteen - A Song That Nobody Would Expect Me To Love ...

Long Gone Lonesome Blues (Hank Williams)

Day Fifteen - A Song That Describes Me ...

Summer, Highland Falls (Billy Joel)

Day Sixteen - A Song That I Used to Love, But Now Hate ...

(honestly can't think of one right now)

Day Seventeen - A Song That I Hear Often on the Radio ...

Since You Been Gone (Kelly Clarkson)

Day Eighteen - A Song That I Wish I Heard on the Radio ...

Do You Wanna Be Right, or Do You Wanna Be Happy (Union Pulse)

Day Nineteen - A Song From My Favorite Album ...

My Valuable Hunting Knife (Guided By Voices, Alien Lanes)

Day Twenty - A Song That I Listen to When I'm Angry ...

Chop Suey! (System of a Down)

Day Twenty One - A Song That I Listen to When I'm Happy ...

Uptown Girl (Billy Joel)

Day Twenty Two - A Song That I Listen to When I'm Sad ...

Take the Long Way Home (Supertramp)

Day Twenty Three - A Song That I Want to Play at My Wedding ...

Flutter and Wow (Elvis Costello)

Day Twenty Four - A Song That I Want Played at My Funeral ...

Souvenir (Billy Joel)

Day Twenty Five - A Song That Makes Me Laugh ...

Jizz In My Pants (The Lonely Island)

Day Twenty Six - A Song That I Can Play on an Instrument ...

Lean On Me (Bill Withers)

Day Twenty Seven - A Song That I Wish I Could Play ...

Prelude/Angry Young Man (Billy Joel)

Day Twenty Eight - A Song That Makes Me Feel Guilty ...

of what ? I DIDN'T DO IT !!

Day Twenty Nine - A Song From My Childhood ...

Being With You (Smokey Robinson)

Day Thirty - My Favorite Song From This Time Last Year ...

Mind Eraser/No Chaser (Them Crooked Vultures)

Writer's Block ... here's a goofy photo

2011 MLB Predictions

Hi, there. How are ya? It's been a long time...

I start my first blog entry in five months with a fuckin' Joe Walsh lyric? No wonder I didn't sell any books.

Here are my 2011 MLB predictions ...

AL East

1. Boston

2. New York

3. Tampa Bay

4. Baltimore

5. Toronto

This division bores me. Boston is solid across the board. New York, I believe lacks pitching depth. TB could either be really good or take a step back. Baltimore is going in the right direction, but they are a few years away, and Toronto, I believe is in Canada.

AL Central

1. Chicago

2. Minnesota

3. Kansas City

4. Detroit

5. Cleveland

The AL Central is always interesting to me. Two years ago, I had Detroit and Cleveland at the top of this division. I think Chicago and Minnesota will have a great race until the end. KC is on their way up. Baseball needs the Royals, Pirates and Orioles to be good again....

AL West

1. Texas

2. Oakland

3. Los Angeles

4. Seattle

I don't watch a lot of AL ball, and I certainly don't watch a lot of AL West ball. Texas will repeat in the division, and blah blah blah ....

NL East

1. Philadelphia

2. Atlanta

3. Washington

4. Florida

5. New York

It pains me to say it. I've never picked the Mets for last. I hope I'm wrong. Washington is still a few years away from making a push.

NL Central

1. Milwaukee

2. Cincinnati

3. St Louis

4. Chicago

5. Houston

6. Pittsburgh

You heard it here first. First division crown in 29 years for the Brewers.

NL West

1. San Francisco

2. Colorado

3. Arizona

4. Los Angeles

5. San Diego

San Francisco will be better in 2011 than they were in 2010. Colorado is solid. The rest of the division isn't that good.

My two wild card teams are ....

Minnesota and Atlanta

AL Playoffs

Boston over Minnesota in 5

Chicago over Texas in 5

Boston over Chicago in 6

NL Playoffs

San Francisco over Atlanta in 5

Philadelphia over Milwaukee in 5

Philadelphia over San Francisco in 7

World Series

Boston over Philadelphia in 6

AL MVP - Joe Mauer (Twins)

AL Cy Young - Jon Lester (Red Sox)

AL Rookie of the Year - Tsuyoshi Nishioka (Twins)

NL MVP - Ryan Braun (Brewers)

NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay (Phillies)

NL Rookie of the Year - Mike Minor (Braves)